BANGKOK, Jun. 30 (The Nation): Thai-Cambodian border closure could lead to a 60 billion baht decline in border exports if the situation persists until the end of the year, the Department of Foreign Trade (DFT) warned on Friday.

Arada Fuengthong, the department’s director-general, revealed that during the first five months of 2025 (January to May), the value of Thai-Cambodian border trade had continued to grow, reaching 80.72 billion baht, an increase of 11.20% compared to the same period last year.

Thai exports amounted to 63.07 billion baht, up by 9%, while imports reached 17.64 billion baht, increasing by 20%. Thailand achieved a trade surplus of 45.43 billion baht.

In May alone, the trade value reached 16.11 billion baht, up 7% from May 2024, with exports totalling 12.85 billion baht (a 6.20% increase) and imports standing at 3.25 billion baht. Thailand's trade surplus in May was 9.59 billion baht.

However, Arada noted that trade is expected to decline in June due to the border closure, which began on June 7, halting both people and goods crossings, as well as tourism, both domestic and international.

Arada explained that consultations with provincial commerce offices along the border revealed that business activity has slowed, with many shops on both sides of the border closing.

In response, the Commerce Ministry has been exploring alternative ways to support businesses, such as offering new trading spaces in government buildings, private-sector areas, and shopping malls.

She pointed out that the export sectors most affected by the border closure are vegetables and fruits. However, the impact has been limited as it coincides with the end of the season.

The ministry has coordinated with both public and private agencies to purchase and distribute these goods domestically. As for consumer goods and industrial products, the ministry is helping exporters by identifying alternative transportation routes, finding new markets, and encouraging online sales.

Regarding imports, particularly cassava, which is used for processing and export, Arada noted that there are options to source it from other countries, especially Laos, which supplies over 60% of Thailand’s cassava imports.

Arada further clarified that while the border closure would primarily affect cross-border trade, it would have limited impact on overall Thai-Cambodian trade because Thailand also exports goods to Cambodia by sea.

For the first five months of this year, total Thai exports amounted to 145.53 billion baht, an 8.7% increase. Of this, 63.07 billion baht was exported via the border, a 9% rise, averaging around 11 billion baht per month.

If the border closure persists through the end of the year, it is expected to result in a 60 billion baht reduction in border exports.

"If Thailand's border exports to Cambodia decline by more than 60 billion baht in the second half of the year, it will reduce the overall border trade with neighbouring countries—Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Malaysia—by approximately 1%," she said.

“This would bring the total growth to around 1.8-2%, falling short of the initial target of 3%, which was set at 1.87 trillion baht. However, trade with Laos and Malaysia, which showed growth of 12.96% and 13.20%, respectively, during the first five months of the year, will help offset the losses," Arada added.

The DFT is closely monitoring the situation following the security measures imposed at the Thai-Cambodian border and is working with provincial commerce offices and customs checkpoints to report daily updates to the ministry. They are also participating in the special task force managing the situation at the border.

The ministry is prepared to assist with clearing affected goods, such as vegetables and fruits, which are impacted by Cambodia's import ban, and is exploring alternative transport options to mitigate economic consequences for citizens.

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